Quantum Outpost

Pre-registered benchmark · Reality Check #5

VQE: molecules vs CCSD(T)

Ground-state energies of four small molecules in the minimal STO-3G basis. VQE-UCCSD and VQE-HEA on a quantum simulator, against CCSD(T) and DMRG on a classical solver. The first benchmark in this series where quantum has a structural reason to be competitive — and the result is more nuanced.

Pre-registered: 2026-04-23 · Run published: 2026-04-25 · Notebook on GitHub →

TL;DR — nuanced

VQE-UCCSD reaches chemical accuracy (< 1.594 mHa from FCI) on every molecule we tested. So does CCSD(T). DMRG reaches FCI exactly. All three methods tie at the level of accuracy that matters for chemistry. Hardware-Efficient Ansatz (HEA) misses chemical accuracy on every molecule. For STO-3G molecules of this size, classical CCSD(T) is faster, simpler, and equally accurate. VQE matches but does not beat — and runtime favors classical by 2–4 orders of magnitude. The interesting story is at larger basis sets and stronger correlation, where this benchmark stops short.

Pre-registration

Energies (Hartree)

Molecule FCI (exact) CCSD(T) DMRG VQE-UCCSD VQE-HEA
H₂ -1.13727 -1.13727 -1.13727 -1.13727 -1.13502
LiH -7.88239 -7.88234 -7.88239 -7.88231 -7.86891
BeH₂ -15.59537 -15.59533 -15.59537 -15.59512 -15.57820
H₂O -75.01153 -75.01147 -75.01153 -75.01098

Errors vs FCI (mHa)

Molecule CCSD(T) DMRG VQE-UCCSD VQE-HEA
H₂ 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.250
LiH 0.050 0.000 0.080 13.480
BeH₂ 0.040 0.000 0.250 17.170
H₂O 0.060 0.000 0.550

Chemical-accuracy threshold = 1.594 mHa. Cells in green meet it; amber and red miss. VQE-UCCSD passes on every molecule. VQE-HEA fails uniformly. CCSD(T) and DMRG pass uniformly.

What this means

VQE-UCCSD matches classical CCSD(T) on small molecules in STO-3G — at chemical accuracy, the two are indistinguishable. This is actually the right outcome to celebrate cautiously: VQE is doing what it was designed to do.

But CCSD(T) takes ~10 ms per molecule on a laptop. VQE-UCCSD on a simulator takes 30 seconds to 4 minutes. On real quantum hardware with circuit noise, VQE on these molecules has been demonstrated successfully — but at much higher cost (1000+ shots × 100s of circuits × seconds per shot) and only because the underlying problem is small enough to verify against the exact answer.

The interesting question this benchmark deliberately doesn't answer: what happens at strongly-correlated systems (transition metal complexes, biradicals, breaking-bond regimes) where CCSD(T) is known to fail and DMRG scales poorly with dimensionality? That is the regime where quantum has a plausible structural advantage. STO-3G H₂O isn't it. We will publish a follow-up at cc-pVDZ benzene and FeMoco active space when fault-tolerant logical-qubit counts catch up — likely 2029-2031 per IBM Starling roadmap.

For now: use CCSD(T) or DMRG. VQE on small molecules is research infrastructure, not a tool.

Caveats


Fifth and final entry in the initial QML Reality Check pre-registration. All five benchmarks now published; series continues with community-suggested datasets — see the sponsor page if your organization wants a specific benchmark run honestly.

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